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Alianza vs Cacahuatique Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:00

Alianza

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cacahuatique

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+21.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.7%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.2%1-110.2%1-27.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.9%3-15.5%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.7%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 59.9% 1.67 -20.3%

Draw 23.1% 29.0% 3.45 -12.2%

Away win 29.2% 20.8% 4.80 +24.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 51.8% 1.93 +21.8%

Over 3.5 38.8% 30.8% 3.25 +26.1%

BTTS 61.6% 55.6% 1.80 +10.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Away O1.5 42.6% 27.0% 3.70 +57.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 20%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza1.8

Cacahuatique1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA · PPG 1.64

CACAHUATIQUE · PPG 1.51

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alianza (H) 47.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -20.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.2%

Cacahuatique (A) 29.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza face Cacahuatique in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Cacahuatique 29%, so Alianza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Alianza and 1.4 for Cacahuatique (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.51 for Cacahuatique. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +57.6%.

Alianza vs Cacahuatique Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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