Today / Canada - Premier League / York United vs HFX Wanderers FC

York United vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 20:00

York United

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

HFX Wanderers FC

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.6%0-26.2%0-33.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.7%1-110.9%1-28.9%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-17.8%2-26.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.3%3-13.8%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 44.4% 2.25 -24.4%

Draw 23.5% 28.2% 3.55 -10.0%

Away win 42.9% 36.5% 2.74 +17.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Over 3.5 38.8% 41.7% 2.40 -6.9%

BTTS 61.6% 69.0% 1.45 -10.7%

Home O1.5 45.1% 54.1% 1.85 -16.6%

Away O1.5 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

York United1.4

HFX Wanderers FC1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

YORK UNITED · PPG 1.17

HFX WANDERERS FC · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

York United (H) 33.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -24.4%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.0%

HFX Wanderers FC (A) 42.9%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

York United face HFX Wanderers FC in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives York United a 34% chance, the draw 24% and HFX Wanderers FC 43%, so HFX Wanderers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for York United and 1.6 for HFX Wanderers FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, York United are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.89 for HFX Wanderers FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%.

York United vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Canada - Premier League Predictions