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Stourbridge vs Needham Market Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 30 ·Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Stourbridge

PPG 1.21 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Needham Market

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.8%0-26.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.7%1-112.1%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-18.3%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.7%3-13.8%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 32.3% 3.10 +14.4%

Draw 25.5% 31.3% 3.20 -18.4%

Away win 37.6% 50.0% 2.00 -24.8%

Over 2.5 52.0% — — —

Over 3.5 29.8% — — —

BTTS 55.9% 61.7% 1.62 -9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.9%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1✓ 8.8%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stourbridge1.4

Needham Market1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

STOURBRIDGE · PPG 1.21

NEEDHAM MARKET · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.21), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Stourbridge (H) 36.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.4%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -18.4%

Needham Market (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stourbridge face Needham Market in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stourbridge a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Needham Market 38%, so Needham Market are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stourbridge and 1.4 for Needham Market (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stourbridge are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.21 for Needham Market. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Stourbridge vs Needham Market Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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