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Bentín Tacna Heroica vs Santos Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:15

Bentín Tacna Heroica

PPG 2.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Santos

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.1%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-17.5%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-17.3%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.1%4+-17.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 59.9% 1.67 +9.0%

Draw 19.2% 28.6% 3.50 -19.7%

Away win 15.5% 23.1% 4.33 -19.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 31.8% 3.14 +15.2%

BTTS 52.5% 54.6% 1.83 -3.9%

Home O1.5 65.8% 54.9% 1.82 +19.8%

Away O1.5 18.2% 27.3% 3.66 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.5%

H 65% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–0 10.4%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bentín Tacna Heroica2.4

Santos0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BENTÍN TACNA HEROICA · PPG 2.43

SANTOS · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 2.43 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bentín Tacna Heroica (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +9.0%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -19.7%

Santos (A) 15.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bentín Tacna Heroica face Santos in Peru - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bentín Tacna Heroica a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Santos 16%, so Bentín Tacna Heroica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Bentín Tacna Heroica and 0.7 for Santos (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bentín Tacna Heroica are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.67 for Santos. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +47.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Bentín Tacna Heroica vs Santos Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Segunda División Predictions