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Cesar Vallejo vs Deportivo Llacuabamba Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Cesar Vallejo

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Deportivo Llacuabamba

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.3%0-118.1%0-26.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.1%1-111.7%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.5%2-13.8%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.2%3-10.8%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 45.5% 2.20 -29.4%

Draw 37.7% 33.3% 3.00 +13.1%

Away win 30.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Over 2.5 33.3% 43.5% 2.30 -23.4%

Over 3.5 12.5% 24.1% 4.15 -28.9%

BTTS 43.6% 52.6% 1.90 -17.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.8% 2.45 -25.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 31.7% 3.15 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

D 38% / xG 0.6-0.7 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.3%

#2 1–0 17.1%

#3 0–1 18.1%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 2–0✓ 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cesar Vallejo0.6

Deportivo Llacuabamba0.7

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CESAR VALLEJO · PPG 1.60

DEPORTIVO LLACUABAMBA · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 1.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cesar Vallejo (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -29.4%

Draw 37.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +13.1%

Deportivo Llacuabamba (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cesar Vallejo face Deportivo Llacuabamba in Peru - Segunda División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cesar Vallejo a 32% chance, the draw 38% and Deportivo Llacuabamba 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Cesar Vallejo and 0.7 for Deportivo Llacuabamba (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cesar Vallejo are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Llacuabamba. This match finished 2-0.

Cesar Vallejo vs Deportivo Llacuabamba Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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