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Alianza Universidad vs Bentín Tacna Heroica Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 20:00

Alianza Universidad

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bentín Tacna Heroica

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-111.3%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.4%1-113.3%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-17.9%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 46.5% 2.15 -17.6%

Draw 26.9% 32.3% 3.10 -10.0%

Away win 34.8% 32.3% 3.10 +7.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 27.1% 25.0% 4.00 +5.0%

BTTS 51.0% 53.5% 1.87 -4.6%

Home O1.5 31.9% 42.6% 2.35 -25.0%

Away O1.5 30.2% 30.5% 3.28 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.0%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0✓ 13.4%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 11.4%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Universidad1.2

Bentín Tacna Heroica1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD · PPG 1.17

BENTÍN TACNA HEROICA · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Universidad (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -17.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.0%

Bentín Tacna Heroica (A) 34.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Universidad face Bentín Tacna Heroica in Peru - Segunda División on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Universidad a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Bentín Tacna Heroica 35%, so Alianza Universidad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Alianza Universidad and 1.0 for Bentín Tacna Heroica (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Universidad are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Bentín Tacna Heroica. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Alianza Universidad vs Bentín Tacna Heroica Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Segunda División Predictions