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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Union Comercio Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Llacuabamba

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Union Comercio

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.4%0-113.9%0-23.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.3%1-110.2%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.2%2-13.7%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.0%3-10.9%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 42.6% 2.35 -12.8%

Draw 35.6% 32.3% 3.10 +10.4%

Away win 27.3% 37.0% 2.70 -15.8%

Over 2.5 28.3% 45.5% 2.20 -22.6%

Over 3.5 11.5% 25.3% 3.96 -32.7%

BTTS 41.6% 54.3% 1.84 -23.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 40.0% 2.50 -22.8%

Away O1.5 14.2% 34.1% 2.93 -35.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.6%

D 36% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.4%

#2 1–0 22.3%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 1–1✓ 10.2%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Llacuabamba0.7

Union Comercio0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LLACUABAMBA · PPG 3.00

UNION COMERCIO · PPG 2.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 1.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Llacuabamba (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -12.8%

Draw 35.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.4%

Union Comercio (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Llacuabamba face Union Comercio in Peru - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Llacuabamba a 37% chance, the draw 36% and Union Comercio 27%, so Deportivo Llacuabamba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Deportivo Llacuabamba and 0.5 for Union Comercio (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Llacuabamba are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Union Comercio. This match finished 1-1.

Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Union Comercio Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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