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Carlos A. Mannucci vs Academia Cantolao Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Carlos A. Mannucci

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Academia Cantolao

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-14.0%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.5%1-18.1%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.6%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.1%3-15.4%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-14.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.3% 67.6% 1.48 -1.9%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 11.7% 19.0% 5.25 -23.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 34.7% 2.88 -10.4%

BTTS 43.7% 52.4% 1.91 -16.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 62.9% 1.59 -10.5%

Away O1.5 15.1% 22.2% 4.50 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.7%

H 66% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 16.6%

#2 1–0 16.5%

#3 3–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carlos A. Mannucci2.0

Academia Cantolao0.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CARLOS A. MANNUCCI · PPG 2.17

ACADEMIA CANTOLAO · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Carlos A. Mannucci (H) 66.3%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -1.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Academia Cantolao (A) 11.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carlos A. Mannucci face Academia Cantolao in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carlos A. Mannucci a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Academia Cantolao 12%, so Carlos A. Mannucci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Carlos A. Mannucci and 0.5 for Academia Cantolao (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carlos A. Mannucci are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.20 for Academia Cantolao. This match finished 2-0.

Carlos A. Mannucci vs Academia Cantolao Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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