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Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:00

Molinos El Pirata

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Comercio

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.3%0-119.4%0-29.7%0-33.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.4%1-112.4%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-04.0%2-14.0%2-22.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.8%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% — — —

Draw 31.3% — — —

Away win 35.9% — — —

Over 2.5 37.0% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 29.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.6%

D 31% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.3%

#2 0–1 19.4%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 0–2 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Molinos El Pirata0.6

Union Comercio1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLINOS EL PIRATA · PPG 2.40

UNION COMERCIO · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.36, combined xG 1.65 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Molinos El Pirata (H) 32.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union Comercio (A) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Molinos El Pirata face Union Comercio in Peru - Segunda División on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molinos El Pirata a 33% chance, the draw 31% and Union Comercio 36%, so Union Comercio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Molinos El Pirata and 1.0 for Union Comercio (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molinos El Pirata are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.20 for Union Comercio.

Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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