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Cesar Vallejo vs Molinos El Pirata Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:15

Cesar Vallejo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Molinos El Pirata

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.5%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.8%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.7%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 59.9% 1.67 -18.3%

Draw 27.2% 28.6% 3.50 -2.9%

Away win 23.9% 22.7% 4.40 +3.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Over 3.5 26.4% 29.2% 3.42 -5.8%

BTTS 49.6% 51.3% 1.95 -3.3%

Home O1.5 37.4% 54.1% 1.85 -30.8%

Away O1.5 24.7% 24.1% 4.15 +1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.6%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cesar Vallejo1.4

Molinos El Pirata0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CESAR VALLEJO · PPG 1.75

MOLINOS EL PIRATA · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cesar Vallejo (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -18.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.9%

Molinos El Pirata (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cesar Vallejo face Molinos El Pirata in Peru - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cesar Vallejo a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Molinos El Pirata 24%, so Cesar Vallejo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cesar Vallejo and 0.9 for Molinos El Pirata (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cesar Vallejo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Molinos El Pirata. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Cesar Vallejo vs Molinos El Pirata Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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