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Union Comercio vs Carlos A. Mannucci Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:15

Union Comercio

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Carlos A. Mannucci

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-15.0%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.3%1-17.6%1-21.2%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.4%2-15.8%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.3%3-12.9%3-20.5%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% 63.7% 1.57 +5.2%

Draw 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Away win 8.3% 20.0% 5.00 -35.1%

Over 2.5 38.0% 50.0% 2.00 -24.0%

Over 3.5 18.4% 30.5% 3.28 -23.8%

BTTS 43.0% 52.6% 1.90 -18.3%

Home O1.5 40.0% 55.2% 1.81 -27.6%

Away O1.5 11.1% 24.1% 4.15 -32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob43.0%

H 67% / xG 1.5-0.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.3%

#2 2–0 18.4%

#3 0–0✓ 16.1%

#4 3–0 9.3%

#5 1–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Comercio1.5

Carlos A. Mannucci0.3

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION COMERCIO · PPG 2.00

CARLOS A. MANNUCCI · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Comercio (H) 67.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +5.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Carlos A. Mannucci (A) 8.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -35.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Comercio face Carlos A. Mannucci in Peru - Segunda División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Comercio a 67% chance, the draw 25% and Carlos A. Mannucci 8%, so Union Comercio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Union Comercio and 0.3 for Carlos A. Mannucci (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Comercio are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Carlos A. Mannucci. This match finished 0-0.

Union Comercio vs Carlos A. Mannucci Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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