Today / Peru - Segunda División / Academia Cantolao vs Molinos El Pirata

Academia Cantolao vs Molinos El Pirata Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:45

Academia Cantolao

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Molinos El Pirata

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.3%0-25.7%0-33.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.5%1-19.8%1-28.8%1-35.2%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.3%2-17.6%2-26.8%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.2%3-14.0%3-23.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 27.0% 3.70 +29.5%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -12.1%

Away win 41.6% 55.6% 1.80 -25.1%

Over 2.5 62.7% 55.6% 1.80 +12.9%

Over 3.5 39.4% 35.3% 2.83 +11.5%

BTTS 61.3% 60.6% 1.65 +1.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 34.6% 2.89 +30.3%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.3%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.8%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Academia Cantolao1.6

Molinos El Pirata1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ACADEMIA CANTOLAO · PPG 0.83

MOLINOS EL PIRATA · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Academia Cantolao (H) 35.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +29.5%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.1%

Molinos El Pirata (A) 41.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Academia Cantolao face Molinos El Pirata in Peru - Segunda División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Academia Cantolao a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Molinos El Pirata 42%, so Molinos El Pirata are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Academia Cantolao and 1.8 for Molinos El Pirata (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Academia Cantolao are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Molinos El Pirata. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Academia Cantolao vs Molinos El Pirata Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Segunda División Predictions