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Santos vs Alianza Universidad Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 20:00

Santos

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alianza Universidad

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.4%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.1%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-18.3%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% — — —

Draw 28.0% — — —

Away win 27.7% — — —

Over 2.5 44.3% — — —

Over 3.5 25.7% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.7% — — —

Away O1.5 27.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos1.3

Alianza Universidad1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS · PPG 2.17

ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santos (H) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alianza Universidad (A) 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos face Alianza Universidad in Peru - Segunda División on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Alianza Universidad 28%, so Santos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Santos and 1.0 for Alianza Universidad (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.60 for Alianza Universidad.

Santos vs Alianza Universidad Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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