Today / Iraq - Iraqi League / Al Shorta vs Mosul

Al Shorta vs Mosul Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Al Shorta

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mosul

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.8%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.5%1-112.9%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.5%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 34.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 37.2% — — —

Away O1.5 33.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -26.4%

Bet Hit 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shorta1.3

Mosul1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHORTA · PPG 1.89

MOSUL · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Shorta (H) 38.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mosul (A) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shorta face Mosul in Iraq - Iraqi League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shorta a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Mosul 35%, so Al Shorta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Shorta and 1.1 for Mosul (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shorta are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.35 for Mosul. This match finished 2-0.

Al Shorta vs Mosul Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iraq - Iraqi League Predictions