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Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:15

Seraing United

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

K. Lierse S.K.

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.2%0-25.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.3%1-112.0%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-18.8%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.3%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Draw 25.4% 32.3% 3.10 -12.8%

Away win 34.5% 34.7% 2.88 -0.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 30.8% 3.25 +2.4%

BTTS 54.8% 59.9% 1.67 -8.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.8%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seraing United1.5

K. Lierse S.K.1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SERAING UNITED · PPG 1.13

K. LIERSE S.K. · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Seraing United (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -9.8%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.8%

K. Lierse S.K. (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seraing United face K. Lierse S.K. in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seraing United a 40% chance, the draw 25% and K. Lierse S.K. 35%, so Seraing United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Seraing United and 1.3 for K. Lierse S.K. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seraing United are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.08 for K. Lierse S.K.. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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