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K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

K. Lierse S.K.

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Patro Eisden

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-111.0%0-28.2%0-34.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.6%2-16.9%2-25.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.7%3-12.6%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

Draw 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -9.6%

Away win 44.5% 46.5% 2.15 -4.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

BTTS 51.7% 59.9% 1.67 -13.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 47.6% 2.10 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.7%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 11.0%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

K. Lierse S.K.1.1

Patro Eisden1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

K. LIERSE S.K. · PPG 1.30

PATRO EISDEN · PPG 1.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

K. Lierse S.K. (H) 28.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.6%

Patro Eisden (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

K. Lierse S.K. face Patro Eisden in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Patro Eisden 45%, so Patro Eisden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.5 for Patro Eisden (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.46 for Patro Eisden. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 2-1.

K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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