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Beerschot vs Lommel SK Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Beerschot

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lommel SK

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.6%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.9%1-111.2%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.3%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Draw 23.9% 28.6% 3.50 -16.4%

Away win 28.5% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

Over 2.5 56.4% 58.8% 1.70 -4.1%

Over 3.5 34.0% 37.0% 2.70 -8.2%

BTTS 58.3% 64.5% 1.55 -9.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.3%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beerschot1.7

Lommel SK1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BEERSCHOT · PPG 1.87

LOMMEL SK · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.87), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Beerschot (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.4%

Lommel SK (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beerschot face Lommel SK in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beerschot a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Lommel SK 28%, so Beerschot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Beerschot and 1.3 for Lommel SK (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beerschot are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.73 for Lommel SK. This match finished 2-1.

Beerschot vs Lommel SK Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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