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Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Lokeren-Temse

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

KRC Genk II

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.2%0-21.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.9%1-17.8%1-24.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.7%3-17.7%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-18.2%4+-24.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 57.8% 1.73 +0.3%

Draw 20.5% 26.3% 3.80 -13.3%

Away win 21.6% 24.4% 4.10 -6.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 43.2% 45.5% 2.20 -5.0%

BTTS 59.9% 69.0% 1.45 -13.2%

Home O1.5 65.8% 63.7% 1.57 +3.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 39.2% 2.55 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokeren-Temse2.4

KRC Genk II1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKEREN-TEMSE · PPG 1.61

KRC GENK II · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lokeren-Temse (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +0.3%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.3%

KRC Genk II (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokeren-Temse face KRC Genk II in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokeren-Temse a 58% chance, the draw 21% and KRC Genk II 22%, so Lokeren-Temse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lokeren-Temse and 1.1 for KRC Genk II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.95 for KRC Genk II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 2-4.

Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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