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Anderlecht B vs OC Charleroi Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Anderlecht B

PPG 0.87 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

OC Charleroi

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.7%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.5%1-110.6%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-16.1%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.4%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 51.3% 1.95 +7.1%

Draw 22.6% 27.4% 3.65 -17.5%

Away win 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -25.8%

Over 2.5 57.3% 66.7% 1.50 -14.1%

Over 3.5 34.9% 43.5% 2.30 -19.7%

BTTS 56.8% 69.4% 1.44 -18.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.8%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anderlecht B1.9

OC Charleroi1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ANDERLECHT B · PPG 0.87

OC CHARLEROI · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.87), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Anderlecht B (H) 54.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +7.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -17.5%

OC Charleroi (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anderlecht B face OC Charleroi in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anderlecht B a 55% chance, the draw 23% and OC Charleroi 23%, so Anderlecht B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Anderlecht B and 1.1 for OC Charleroi (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anderlecht B are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 0.93 for OC Charleroi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 5-0.

Anderlecht B vs OC Charleroi Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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