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KRC Genk II vs Liège Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

KRC Genk II

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Liège

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.1%0-26.5%0-33.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.0%1-111.2%1-29.0%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.9%2-17.8%2-26.2%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.2%3-13.6%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% 35.7% 2.80 -6.5%

Draw 25.5% 31.3% 3.20 -11.0%

Away win 41.1% 44.4% 2.25 -7.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 38.6% 44.4% 2.25 -13.2%

Away O1.5 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KRC Genk II1.4

Liège1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KRC GENK II · PPG 1.17

LIÈGE · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KRC Genk II (H) 33.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -6.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.0%

Liège (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

KRC Genk II face Liège in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KRC Genk II a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Liège 41%, so Liège are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for KRC Genk II and 1.6 for Liège (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KRC Genk II are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.42 for Liège. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 2-3.

KRC Genk II vs Liège Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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