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Kortrijk vs RWDM Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Kortrijk

PPG 2.67 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RWDM

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.9%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.9%1-18.7%1-24.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.6%3-17.3%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.9%4+-23.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Draw 19.4% 25.3% 3.95 -23.4%

Away win 17.6% 19.0% 5.25 -7.6%

Over 2.5 64.9% 61.7% 1.62 +5.1%

Over 3.5 42.9% 40.0% 2.50 +7.2%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 51.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 63% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 8.9%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 3–1✓ 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kortrijk2.2

RWDM1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KORTRIJK · PPG 2.67

RWDM · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=63.0%

Win probability 1X2

Kortrijk (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -3.6%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -23.4%

RWDM (A) 17.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kortrijk face RWDM in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kortrijk a 63% chance, the draw 19% and RWDM 18%, so Kortrijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Kortrijk and 1.1 for RWDM (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kortrijk are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.27 for RWDM. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Kortrijk vs RWDM Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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