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Newroz vs Duhok Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:45

Newroz

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Duhok

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.9%0-25.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.4%1-112.3%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.5%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.0%3-13.9%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 35.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 31.5% — — —

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 38.6% — — —

Away O1.5 39.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -26.4%

Bet Hit 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newroz1.4

Duhok1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWROZ · PPG 1.42

DUHOK · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Newroz (H) 39.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Duhok (A) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Newroz face Duhok in Iraq - Iraqi League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newroz a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Duhok 36%, so Newroz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Newroz and 1.3 for Duhok (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newroz are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.23 for Duhok. This match finished 0-0.

Newroz vs Duhok Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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