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Karcag SE vs Fehérvár FC Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:30

Karcag SE

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fehérvár FC

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.8%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.0%1-111.3%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 32.3% 3.10 +43.8%

Draw 24.3% 34.5% 2.90 -17.7%

Away win 29.3% 46.5% 2.15 -22.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 47.6% 2.10 +25.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 29.2% 3.42 +25.5%

BTTS 60.0% 57.1% 1.75 +5.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 34.1% 2.93 +43.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 32.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.0%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karcag SE1.7

Fehérvár FC1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KARCAG SE · PPG 1.34

FEHÉRVÁR FC · PPG 0.87

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karcag SE (H) 46.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +43.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.7%

Fehérvár FC (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karcag SE face Fehérvár FC in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karcag SE a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Fehérvár FC 29%, so Karcag SE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Karcag SE and 1.3 for Fehérvár FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karcag SE are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 0.87 for Fehérvár FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +63.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Karcag SE vs Fehérvár FC Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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