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Verl vs 1860 Munchen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Verl

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

1860 Munchen

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.6%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.5%1-25.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-16.8%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.7%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 59.9% 1.67 -13.0%

Draw 24.2% 23.8% 4.20 +1.0%

Away win 23.8% 23.1% 4.33 +1.8%

Over 2.5 61.4% 69.4% 1.44 -11.6%

Over 3.5 40.0% 47.6% 2.10 -16.0%

BTTS 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Verl2.1

1860 Munchen1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VERL · PPG 2.06

1860 MUNCHEN · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=52.1%

Win probability 1X2

Verl (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -13.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.0%

1860 Munchen (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Verl face 1860 Munchen in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Verl a 52% chance, the draw 24% and 1860 Munchen 24%, so Verl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Verl and 1.1 for 1860 Munchen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Verl are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.22 for 1860 Munchen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Verl vs 1860 Munchen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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