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Arendal vs Lysekloster Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Arendal

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lysekloster

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.8%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.8%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.6%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 23.8% — — —

Over 2.5 61.8% — — —

Over 3.5 38.7% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 33.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -41.1%

Bet Hit 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arendal2.0

Lysekloster1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENDAL · PPG 1.50

LYSEKLOSTER · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arendal (H) 53.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lysekloster (A) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arendal face Lysekloster in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arendal a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Lysekloster 24%, so Arendal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Arendal and 1.2 for Lysekloster (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arendal are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Lysekloster. This match finished 2-1.

Arendal vs Lysekloster Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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