Today / Egypt - Premier League / El Geish vs K. Ismailia
El Geish vs K. Ismailia Prediction— Egypt - Premier League
Relegation Group - 6 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00
// Model verdict
Home
Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 54 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 56% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 37%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%
Form & verdict
EL GEISH · PPG 1.50
K. ISMAILIA · PPG 1.50
Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
El Geish face K. Ismailia in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Geish a 56% chance, the draw 27% and K. Ismailia 17%, so El Geish are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for El Geish and 0.7 for K. Ismailia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Geish are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for K. Ismailia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-2.