Today / Egypt - Premier League / El Geish vs K. Ismailia

El Geish vs K. Ismailia Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 6 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

El Geish logo
El Geish
PPG 1.50 · HOME
1 – 2
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME
K. Ismailia logo
K. Ismailia
PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-18.0%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.6%1-111.6%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.4%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-14.1%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 56.1% 52.6% 1.90 +6.6%
Draw 26.9% 34.2% 2.92 -21.4%
Away win 17.0% 22.0% 4.55 -22.7%
Over 2.5 35.2% 41.7% 2.40 -15.5%
Over 3.5 16.3% 22.2% 4.50 -26.7%
BTTS 37.0% 50.0% 2.00 -26.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%
O2.5 59%
BTTS 57%
Score Hit 46%
ROI -23.4%
Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-2
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob37.0%

H 56% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%
#2 2–0 12.7%
#3 0–0 12.2%
#4 1–1 11.6%
#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Geish1.4
K. Ismailia0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GEISH · PPG 1.50

K. ISMAILIA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

El Geish (H) 56.1%
ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +6.6%
Draw 26.9%
ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -21.4%
K. Ismailia (A) 17.0%
ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Geish face K. Ismailia in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Geish a 56% chance, the draw 27% and K. Ismailia 17%, so El Geish are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for El Geish and 0.7 for K. Ismailia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Geish are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for K. Ismailia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-2.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org