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Tienen vs Dessel Sport Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

VV · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Tienen

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dessel Sport

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.5%0-24.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.7%1-110.8%1-27.6%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.6%3-15.1%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.1%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 41.7% 2.40 +9.2%

Draw 24.6% 33.3% 3.00 -15.7%

Away win 29.8% 38.2% 2.62 -13.2%

Over 2.5 59.8% 58.8% 1.70 +1.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 37.0% 2.70 -0.6%

BTTS 60.8% 62.5% 1.60 -2.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 48.1% 2.08 +1.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 43.5% 2.30 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tienen1.7

Dessel Sport1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TIENEN · PPG 1.48

DESSEL SPORT · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tienen (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +9.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.7%

Dessel Sport (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tienen face Dessel Sport in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tienen a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Dessel Sport 30%, so Tienen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tienen and 1.4 for Dessel Sport (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tienen are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.04 for Dessel Sport. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 3-4.

Tienen vs Dessel Sport Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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