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Meux vs Union Saint-Gilloise II Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

ACFF · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Meux

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Union Saint-Gilloise II

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.3%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.1%1-110.8%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.0%3-15.3%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 46.5% 2.15 -2.8%

Draw 27.5% 33.3% 3.00 -10.5%

Away win 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -12.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 32.7% 36.5% 2.74 -10.4%

BTTS 54.3% 61.7% 1.62 -12.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 49.8% 2.01 -1.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 40.8% 2.45 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meux1.7

Union Saint-Gilloise II1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MEUX · PPG 1.62

UNION SAINT-GILLOISE II · PPG 1.46

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Meux (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -2.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.5%

Union Saint-Gilloise II (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meux face Union Saint-Gilloise II in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meux a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Union Saint-Gilloise II 27%, so Meux are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Meux and 1.3 for Union Saint-Gilloise II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meux are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.46 for Union Saint-Gilloise II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Meux vs Union Saint-Gilloise II Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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