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Standard Liège II vs Tubize Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

ACFF · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Standard Liège II

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tubize

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.9%0-25.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.2%1-110.9%1-28.2%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.6%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.0%3-14.5%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 16.7% 6.00 +118.4%

Draw 27.7% 21.1% 4.75 +18.9%

Away win 35.9% 75.2% 1.33 -52.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Over 3.5 34.1% 47.2% 2.12 -27.7%

BTTS 54.3% 57.8% 1.73 -6.1%

Home O1.5 47.2% 24.4% 4.10 +93.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 75.8% 1.32 -42.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.3%

H 36% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Standard Liège II1.6

Tubize1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STANDARD LIÈGE II · PPG 1.30

TUBIZE · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Standard Liège II (H) 36.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +118.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +18.9%

Tubize (A) 35.9%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -52.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Standard Liège II face Tubize in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Standard Liège II a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Tubize 36%, so Standard Liège II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Standard Liège II and 1.5 for Tubize (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Standard Liège II are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.62 for Tubize. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +93.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Standard Liège II vs Tubize Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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