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Hoogstraten vs Merelbeke Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

VV · Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:30

Hoogstraten

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Merelbeke

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.8%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.7%1-19.6%1-26.0%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.2%3-16.5%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.2%4+-23.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 57.8% 1.73 -7.8%

Draw 22.7% 26.7% 3.75 -8.9%

Away win 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Over 2.5 62.7% 65.4% 1.53 -4.1%

Over 3.5 39.3% 44.8% 2.23 -12.4%

BTTS 60.8% 69.4% 1.44 -12.4%

Home O1.5 56.3% 63.7% 1.57 -11.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 38.9% 2.57 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoogstraten2.0

Merelbeke1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HOOGSTRATEN · PPG 1.78

MERELBEKE · PPG 1.04

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hoogstraten (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -7.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.9%

Merelbeke (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoogstraten face Merelbeke in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoogstraten a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Merelbeke 24%, so Hoogstraten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hoogstraten and 1.3 for Merelbeke (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoogstraten are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.04 for Merelbeke. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Hoogstraten vs Merelbeke Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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