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Sporting Charleroi II vs Albert Quévy-Mons Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

ACFF · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Sporting Charleroi II

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Albert Quévy-Mons

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.4%0-25.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.6%1-111.2%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.5%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.9%3-14.3%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 25.0% 4.00 +39.2%

Draw 31.3% 26.7% 3.75 +17.4%

Away win 34.0% 59.9% 1.67 -43.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 34.2% 2.92 -8.0%

BTTS 54.1% 58.1% 1.72 -7.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 30.5% 3.28 +31.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 55.9% 1.79 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.1%

D 31% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Charleroi II1.5

Albert Quévy-Mons1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CHARLEROI II · PPG 1.38

ALBERT QUÉVY-MONS · PPG 1.79

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Charleroi II (H) 34.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +39.2%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +17.4%

Albert Quévy-Mons (A) 34.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -43.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Charleroi II face Albert Quévy-Mons in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Charleroi II a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Albert Quévy-Mons 34%, so Sporting Charleroi II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sporting Charleroi II and 1.5 for Albert Quévy-Mons (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Charleroi II are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.79 for Albert Quévy-Mons. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +38.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Sporting Charleroi II vs Albert Quévy-Mons Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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