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Lyra-Lierse Berlaar vs Thes Sport Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

VV · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Thes Sport

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.1%0-24.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.3%1-110.5%1-27.6%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.6%3-15.2%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.3%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 35.7% 2.80 +28.2%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 30.0% 44.4% 2.25 -32.5%

Over 2.5 62.0% 61.7% 1.62 +0.4%

Over 3.5 39.2% 38.2% 2.62 +2.7%

BTTS 61.1% 64.5% 1.55 -5.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 43.5% 2.30 +12.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 49.8% 2.01 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.1%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar1.7

Thes Sport1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LYRA-LIERSE BERLAAR · PPG 1.82

THES SPORT · PPG 1.52

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +28.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Thes Sport (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar face Thes Sport in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyra-Lierse Berlaar a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Thes Sport 30%, so Lyra-Lierse Berlaar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar and 1.4 for Thes Sport (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyra-Lierse Berlaar are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.52 for Thes Sport. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 3-3.

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar vs Thes Sport Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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