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Rochefort vs Habay-la-Neuve Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

ACFF · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Rochefort

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Habay-la-Neuve

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.1%0-24.3%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.4%1-110.5%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.7%3-15.2%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.3%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

Draw 26.5% 28.6% 3.50 -4.3%

Away win 28.9% 34.5% 2.90 -9.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.1% 1.75 -6.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

BTTS 54.7% 68.0% 1.47 -19.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.0% 1.96 -4.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 41.2% 2.43 -0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochefort1.7

Habay-la-Neuve1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHEFORT · PPG 1.25

HABAY-LA-NEUVE · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rochefort (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -8.6%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.3%

Habay-la-Neuve (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochefort face Habay-la-Neuve in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochefort a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Habay-la-Neuve 29%, so Rochefort are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rochefort and 1.4 for Habay-la-Neuve (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochefort are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.17 for Habay-la-Neuve. This match finished 4-2.

Rochefort vs Habay-la-Neuve Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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