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Roeselare Daisel vs Spouwen-Mopertingen Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

VV · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Roeselare Daisel

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Spouwen-Mopertingen

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.4%0-24.6%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.5%1-110.7%1-27.7%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-19.0%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.5%3-15.0%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.1%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 31.1% 35.7% 2.80 -12.9%

Over 2.5 60.3% 61.7% 1.62 -2.3%

Over 3.5 37.6% 37.0% 2.70 +1.5%

BTTS 60.8% 62.5% 1.60 -2.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 36.2% 2.76 +12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Roeselare Daisel1.7

Spouwen-Mopertingen1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROESELARE DAISEL · PPG 1.78

SPOUWEN-MOPERTINGEN · PPG 1.87

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Roeselare Daisel (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Spouwen-Mopertingen (A) 31.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Roeselare Daisel face Spouwen-Mopertingen in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Roeselare Daisel a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Spouwen-Mopertingen 31%, so Roeselare Daisel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Roeselare Daisel and 1.4 for Spouwen-Mopertingen (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Roeselare Daisel are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.87 for Spouwen-Mopertingen. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Roeselare Daisel vs Spouwen-Mopertingen Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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