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Houtvenne vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

VV · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Houtvenne

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.5%0-24.6%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.6%1-110.8%1-27.7%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-19.0%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.5%3-15.0%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.0%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 40.0% 2.50 +11.8%

Draw 24.2% 30.8% 3.25 -12.8%

Away win 31.0% 42.0% 2.38 -26.2%

Over 2.5 59.8% 65.4% 1.53 -8.5%

Over 3.5 37.0% 46.5% 2.15 -20.4%

BTTS 60.8% 71.4% 1.40 -14.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 52.4% 1.91 -6.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 54.3% 1.84 -24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houtvenne1.7

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUTVENNE · PPG 1.04

OUD-HEVERLEE LEUVEN II · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Houtvenne (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +11.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.8%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (A) 31.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houtvenne face Oud-Heverlee Leuven II in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houtvenne a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 31%, so Houtvenne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Houtvenne and 1.4 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houtvenne are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.17 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Houtvenne vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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