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Lugano II vs Luzern II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:30

Lugano II

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Luzern II

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.7%0-24.2%0-33.1%0-4+2.9%1 1-03.1%1-17.0%1-27.7%1-35.7%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.9%2-16.5%2-27.2%2-35.3%2-4+5.0%3 3-01.8%3-14.0%3-24.5%3-33.3%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.9%4+-23.2%4+-32.4%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 45.4% — — —

Over 2.5 64.7% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.3%

A 45% / xG 1.9-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano II1.9

Luzern II2.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO II · PPG 1.11

LUZERN II · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lugano II (H) 31.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Luzern II (A) 45.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano II face Luzern II in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano II a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Luzern II 45%, so Luzern II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lugano II and 2.2 for Luzern II (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano II are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.41 for Luzern II.

Lugano II vs Luzern II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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