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Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:45

Raków Częstochowa

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Jagiellonia

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.7%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.4%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-18.9%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 47.6% 2.10 -13.5%

Draw 26.0% 29.4% 3.40 -7.0%

Away win 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

Over 2.5 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Over 3.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

BTTS 54.3% 62.5% 1.60 -13.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 52.4% 1.91 -23.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.0% 2.50 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 1–2 7.3%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Raków Częstochowa1.4

Jagiellonia1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA · PPG 1.33

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 1.77

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Raków Częstochowa (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -13.5%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.0%

Jagiellonia (A) 32.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Raków Częstochowa face Jagiellonia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Raków Częstochowa a 41% chance, the draw 26% and Jagiellonia 33%, so Raków Częstochowa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Raków Częstochowa and 1.2 for Jagiellonia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.77 for Jagiellonia. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 2-5.

Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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