Today / Malaysia - Super League / Melaka vs Negeri Sembilan

Melaka vs Negeri Sembilan Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:15

Melaka

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Negeri Sembilan

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.3%0-25.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.2%1-111.7%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.3%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.0%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 25.6% 3.90 +36.5%

Draw 26.1% 28.2% 3.55 -4.4%

Away win 38.8% 56.5% 1.77 -31.3%

Over 2.5 51.9% 57.8% 1.73 -10.2%

Over 3.5 31.5% 35.7% 2.80 -11.8%

BTTS 52.7% 61.7% 1.62 -14.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 34.7% 2.88 +15.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 57.1% 1.75 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.7%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1✓ 8.3%

#4 0–1 8.3%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melaka1.4

Negeri Sembilan1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MELAKA · PPG 1.29

NEGERI SEMBILAN · PPG 1.12

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Melaka (H) 35.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +36.5%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.4%

Negeri Sembilan (A) 38.8%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melaka face Negeri Sembilan in Malaysia - Super League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melaka a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Negeri Sembilan 39%, so Negeri Sembilan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Melaka and 1.4 for Negeri Sembilan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melaka are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.12 for Negeri Sembilan. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +27.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Melaka vs Negeri Sembilan Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Malaysia - Super League Predictions