Today / Malaysia - Super League / Sabah FA vs Penang

Sabah FA vs Penang Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 11:30

Sabah FA

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Penang

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.6%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.8%1-112.4%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.0%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.3%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 52.6% 1.90 -19.4%

Draw 31.4% 27.8% 3.60 +13.0%

Away win 26.2% 30.3% 3.30 -8.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.0% 2.70 -13.5%

BTTS 50.2% 61.3% 1.63 -18.2%

Home O1.5 40.1% 54.9% 1.82 -27.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.0% 2.50 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.2%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 2–0✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabah FA1.4

Penang1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SABAH FA · PPG 1.06

PENANG · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sabah FA (H) 42.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -19.4%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +13.0%

Penang (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabah FA face Penang in Malaysia - Super League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabah FA a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Penang 26%, so Sabah FA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sabah FA and 1.1 for Penang (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabah FA are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.17 for Penang. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Sabah FA vs Penang Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Malaysia - Super League Predictions