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Penang vs DPMM FC Brunei Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 09:00

Penang

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

DPMM FC Brunei

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.6%0-23.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.7%1-110.3%1-26.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.3%3-15.8%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 57.1% 1.75 -15.8%

Draw 23.1% 30.3% 3.30 -14.3%

Away win 28.9% 25.6% 3.90 +7.6%

Over 2.5 62.6% 62.5% 1.60 +0.2%

Over 3.5 39.1% 40.2% 2.49 -2.6%

BTTS 61.3% 62.5% 1.60 -1.9%

Home O1.5 52.2% 59.9% 1.67 -12.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 34.7% 2.88 +18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penang1.8

DPMM FC Brunei1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PENANG · PPG 1.23

DPMM FC BRUNEI · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Penang (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -15.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.3%

DPMM FC Brunei (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penang face DPMM FC Brunei in Malaysia - Super League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penang a 48% chance, the draw 23% and DPMM FC Brunei 29%, so Penang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Penang and 1.3 for DPMM FC Brunei (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penang are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.12 for DPMM FC Brunei. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Penang vs DPMM FC Brunei Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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