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Terengganu vs Melaka Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

Terengganu

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Melaka

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.1%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.8%1-110.1%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.1%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Draw 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -4.1%

Away win 22.5% 19.0% 5.25 +10.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 42.0% 2.38 -12.9%

BTTS 54.7% 58.5% 1.71 -6.5%

Home O1.5 54.9% 68.0% 1.47 -19.3%

Away O1.5 32.3% 27.5% 3.64 +17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Terengganu2.0

Melaka1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TERENGGANU · PPG 1.23

MELAKA · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Terengganu (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -20.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.1%

Melaka (A) 22.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Terengganu face Melaka in Malaysia - Super League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Terengganu a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Melaka 23%, so Terengganu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Terengganu and 1.0 for Melaka (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Terengganu are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 0.80 for Melaka. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Terengganu vs Melaka Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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