Today / Estonia - Esiliiga B / Johvi Phoenix vs JK Tabasalu

Johvi Phoenix vs JK Tabasalu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 24 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 12:00

Johvi Phoenix

PPG 2.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

JK Tabasalu

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.2%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.2%1-14.1%1-22.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.3%2-16.9%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-17.8%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-115.4%4+-210.0%4+-34.3%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.8% 33.3% 3.00 +100.4%

Draw 16.2% 22.2% 4.50 -16.3%

Away win 17.1% 55.6% 1.80 -41.5%

Over 2.5 70.7% 80.0% 1.25 -11.6%

Over 3.5 49.8% 72.5% 1.38 -31.3%

BTTS 63.2% 83.3% 1.20 -24.2%

Home O1.5 78.4% 68.5% 1.46 +14.5%

Away O1.5 39.0% 74.6% 1.34 -47.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 67% / xG 3.4-1.3 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 4–1 6.5%

#4 1–1 4.1%

#5 2–2✓ 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Johvi Phoenix3.4

JK Tabasalu1.3

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JOHVI PHOENIX · PPG 2.45

JK TABASALU · PPG 0.92

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.06 for Home, form 2.45 vs 0.92 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Johvi Phoenix (H) 66.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +100.4%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -16.3%

JK Tabasalu (A) 17.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -41.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Johvi Phoenix face JK Tabasalu in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Johvi Phoenix a 67% chance, the draw 16% and JK Tabasalu 17%, so Johvi Phoenix are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Johvi Phoenix and 1.3 for JK Tabasalu (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Johvi Phoenix are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 0.92 for JK Tabasalu. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Johvi Phoenix vs JK Tabasalu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Esiliiga B Predictions