Today / Estonia - Esiliiga B / Levadia U19 vs Narva U21

Levadia U19 vs Narva U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 24 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 16:00

Levadia U19

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Narva U21

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.9%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.4%1-18.3%1-26.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.2%3-16.4%3-24.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.7%4+-24.3%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 36.4% 2.75 +34.5%

Draw 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

Away win 28.9% 52.4% 1.91 -26.9%

Over 2.5 67.3% 80.0% 1.25 -15.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 63.3% 1.58 -31.3%

BTTS 63.2% 82.0% 1.22 -22.9%

Home O1.5 61.2% 54.3% 1.84 +12.6%

Away O1.5 48.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadia U192.1

Narva U211.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIA U19 · PPG 1.91

NARVA U21 · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Levadia U19 (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +34.5%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.3%

Narva U21 (A) 28.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadia U19 face Narva U21 in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadia U19 a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Narva U21 29%, so Levadia U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Levadia U19 and 1.5 for Narva U21 (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadia U19 are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.20 for Narva U21. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Levadia U19 vs Narva U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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