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Tartu Kalev vs Luunja Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 24 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 12:00

Tartu Kalev

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Luunja

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.7%0-21.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.2%1-15.1%1-24.1%1-32.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.7%2-17.4%2-25.9%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-17.2%3-25.8%3-33.1%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-110.9%4+-28.7%4+-34.6%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 49.5% 2.02 +16.4%

Draw 18.3% 25.3% 3.95 -16.6%

Away win 24.1% 37.0% 2.70 -21.0%

Over 2.5 71.8% 84.7% 1.18 -15.3%

Over 3.5 51.6% 66.7% 1.50 -22.6%

BTTS 69.0% 82.0% 1.22 -15.8%

Home O1.5 78.4% — — —

Away O1.5 48.5% 64.5% 1.55 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.0%

H 58% / xG 2.9-1.6 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 7.4%

#2 3–1 7.2%

#3 2–2 5.9%

#4 1–1 5.1%

#5 1–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tartu Kalev2.9

Luunja1.6

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TARTU KALEV · PPG 2.08

LUUNJA · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tartu Kalev (H) 57.6%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +16.4%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -16.6%

Luunja (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tartu Kalev face Luunja in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tartu Kalev a 58% chance, the draw 18% and Luunja 24%, so Tartu Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Tartu Kalev and 1.6 for Luunja (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tartu Kalev are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.33 for Luunja. This match finished 2-1.

Tartu Kalev vs Luunja Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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