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Tulevik vs Narva U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Tulevik

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Narva U21

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.7%0-22.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.1%1-18.0%1-26.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.1%3-16.4%3-25.0%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.8%4+-24.6%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 32.3% 3.10 +41.4%

Draw 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Away win 32.8% 55.6% 1.80 -41.0%

Over 2.5 67.3% 80.0% 1.25 -15.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 64.5% 1.55 -32.6%

BTTS 63.2% 78.7% 1.27 -19.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 58.1% 1.72 +12.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 72.5% 1.38 -33.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 46% / xG 2.2-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tulevik2.2

Narva U211.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TULEVIK · PPG 1.71

NARVA U21 · PPG 1.09

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tulevik (H) 45.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +41.4%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Narva U21 (A) 32.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -41.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tulevik face Narva U21 in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tulevik a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Narva U21 33%, so Tulevik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tulevik and 1.6 for Narva U21 (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tulevik are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.09 for Narva U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 3-3.

Tulevik vs Narva U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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