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Tallinna Kalev II vs Legion Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00

Tallinna Kalev II

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Legion

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +4.48 for Home, form 0.91 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.5%1-10.7%1-20.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-01.5%2-11.9%2-21.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-023.6%4+-129.5%4+-218.4%4+-37.6%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 78.1% 1.28 -8.1%

Draw 14.7% 16.0% 6.25 -4.9%

Away win 13.5% 17.4% 5.75 -13.4%

Over 2.5 82.7% 89.3% 1.12 -7.4%

Over 3.5 67.5% 72.5% 1.38 -6.9%

BTTS 63.2% 77.5% 1.29 -18.5%

Home O1.5 78.4% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% 39.2% 2.55 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)5.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.2%

H 72% / xG 5.7-1.2 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 1.2%

#2 5–1 6.0%

#3 4–1 5.2%

#4 3–3✓ 0.9%

#5 5–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tallinna Kalev II5.7

Legion1.2

COMBINED 7.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.7% · O3.5 PROB 67.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLINNA KALEV II · PPG 0.91

LEGION · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +4.48 for Home, form 0.91 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tallinna Kalev II (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -8.1%

Draw 14.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -4.9%

Legion (A) 13.5%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tallinna Kalev II face Legion in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tallinna Kalev II a 72% chance, the draw 15% and Legion 14%, so Tallinna Kalev II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.7 for Tallinna Kalev II and 1.2 for Legion (7.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tallinna Kalev II are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 0.40 for Legion. This match finished 3-3.

Tallinna Kalev II vs Legion Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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