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Karlskrona vs Berga Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Karlskrona

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Berga

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.56 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.6%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.2%1-16.9%1-23.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-18.0%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-19.9%4+-25.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% — — —

Draw 16.1% — — —

Away win 20.5% — — —

Over 2.5 68.2% — — —

Over 3.5 48.2% — — —

BTTS 62.2% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 33.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.1%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlskrona2.6

Berga1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSKRONA · PPG 2.33

BERGA · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Karlskrona (H) 63.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Berga (A) 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlskrona face Berga in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlskrona a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Berga 21%, so Karlskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Karlskrona and 1.1 for Berga (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlskrona are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.56 for Berga. This match finished 4-1.

Karlskrona vs Berga Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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