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Jeonnam Dragons vs Hwaseong Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:30

Jeonnam Dragons

PPG 0.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hwaseong

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-111.8%0-210.2%0-35.8%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.6%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.2%2-15.4%2-24.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.0%3-11.7%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -10.9%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Over 2.5 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob53.0%

A 53% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 0–2 10.2%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonnam Dragons1.0

Hwaseong1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONNAM DRAGONS · PPG 0.86

HWASEONG · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.76 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Jeonnam Dragons (H) 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Hwaseong (A) 53.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonnam Dragons face Hwaseong in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonnam Dragons a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Hwaseong 53%, so Hwaseong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jeonnam Dragons and 1.7 for Hwaseong (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonnam Dragons are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.67 for Hwaseong. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Jeonnam Dragons vs Hwaseong Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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