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Gijang United vs Jinju Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:00

Gijang United

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Jinju Citizen

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-19.1%0-211.2%0-39.2%0-4+10.3%1 1-03.1%1-17.6%1-29.3%1-37.7%1-4+8.5%2 2-01.3%2-13.2%2-23.9%2-33.2%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.1%3-30.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 22.7% 4.40 -25.1%

Draw 19.6% 28.6% 3.50 -18.8%

Away win 67.1% 61.7% 1.62 +8.7%

Over 2.5 60.0% 59.9% 1.67 +0.2%

Over 3.5 37.6% 39.1% 2.56 -3.7%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 31.7% 3.15 -3.6%

Away O1.5 65.4% 61.3% 1.63 +6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob53.0%

A 67% / xG 0.8-2.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.2%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 1–2 9.3%

#4 0–3 9.2%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gijang United0.8

Jinju Citizen2.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GIJANG UNITED · PPG 1.71

JINJU CITIZEN · PPG 2.71

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.64 for Away, form 1.71 vs 2.71

Win probability 1X2

Gijang United (H) 13.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -25.1%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.8%

Jinju Citizen (A) 67.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gijang United face Jinju Citizen in South-Korea - K4 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gijang United a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Jinju Citizen 67%, so Jinju Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Gijang United and 2.5 for Jinju Citizen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gijang United are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.71 for Jinju Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-4.

Gijang United vs Jinju Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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