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Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Jinju Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 10:00

Pyeongtaek Citizen

PPG 0.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jinju Citizen

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.66 for Away, form 0.40 vs 2.67

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-15.8%0-29.7%0-310.9%0-4+21.4%1 1-01.2%1-14.1%1-26.8%1-37.6%1-4+15.1%2 2-00.4%2-11.4%2-22.4%2-32.7%2-4+5.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.6%3-30.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% 15.4% 6.50 -8.1%

Draw 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

Away win 69.3% 76.9% 1.30 -9.9%

Over 2.5 67.0% 69.4% 1.44 -3.5%

Over 3.5 49.6% 49.5% 2.02 +0.2%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 33.3% 28.6% 3.50 +16.6%

Away O1.5 79.2% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 69% / xG 0.7-3.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 10.9%

#2 0–2 9.7%

#3 0–4 9.1%

#4 1–3 7.6%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pyeongtaek Citizen0.7

Jinju Citizen3.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PYEONGTAEK CITIZEN · PPG 0.40

JINJU CITIZEN · PPG 2.67

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.66 for Away, form 0.40 vs 2.67

Win probability 1X2

Pyeongtaek Citizen (H) 13.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -8.1%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.8%

Jinju Citizen (A) 69.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pyeongtaek Citizen face Jinju Citizen in South-Korea - K4 League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pyeongtaek Citizen a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Jinju Citizen 69%, so Jinju Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Pyeongtaek Citizen and 3.4 for Jinju Citizen (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pyeongtaek Citizen are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 2.67 for Jinju Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +16.6%.

Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Jinju Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

More South-Korea - K4 League Predictions